In the first half of the year, the sales volume of construction machinery industry continued to exceed expectations, but the macro level remained cautious in the follow-up demand. In July 23rd, the State Council often put forward a proactive fiscal policy to be more active, maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, and anticipate changes in the market. For this reason, we invited experts to interpret the latest situation of the construction machinery industry for us.
1. In the first half of this year, the total growth rate of the nine categories of products was 34.9%. According to the product, the loader, bulldozer, and leveler are all growing above 30%; the truck crane increases by 75%; the forklift truck reaches 300 thousand in the first half of the year, the growth rate is 26.6%; the excavator sales volume reaches 120 thousand, the increase 60%; the concrete mechanical aspect, the pump car grows 150%, the mixer grows 50%, the overall development is relatively smooth, in some respects slightly super expected.
2, the total export volume of construction machinery industry increased by 29% in the first quarter. From the industry statistics, the nine main products, exports increased by 39.7%, higher than the total sales growth. Among them, the excavators exported nearly 9000 units in the first half of this year, last year were more than 4000, more than doubled over the same year; the other products, loaders increased more than 30%, bulldozers increased more than 50%, the growth of the flat ground machine was close to 50%, and the growth of roller and shovel was good.
3, macro policy has begun to move towards a more positive direction. There is not much detail to come out, and there may soon be some concrete things coming out. A few years ago, and now some positive measures should be further fulfilled, it is expected that it will be better. From the present situation, the manufacturers, including the supporting parts manufacturers, are more cautious about the expansion and adjustment of the production capacity, and the control of the production rhythm is stable. The next step may be further implementation of the demand, which will raise the expectations of the later stage, and we need to do some further updates and research.
4, the impact of environmental protection is more direct, mainly in two aspects: (1) restriction of construction; 2) the management of high emission equipment is strengthened, and the control measures for non road machinery emission are carried out in various places. For old construction machinery, we must speed up the elimination, and we have not mentioned the mandatory elimination, which is to encourage the elimination of old equipment. For the use of equipment is relatively large, so the landing and implementation of environmental protection policy will promote the growth of new machine sales.
5, a common expectation in the industry hopes to achieve steady growth in recent years. From the point of view of renewal, the construction machinery in 2009, 2011 and 2012 will be pushed into a natural renewal process, and the demand for renewal is relatively scattered in terms of time, region and industry. It can be more favorable to the steady growth of the industry. It is predicted that the second half will be a bit stable, and the volume of the whole year may exceed our original expectations. The operating indicators of each manufacturer, the operation is also very stable, stable, the financial situation is very good, the receivable is also relatively stable, accounts receivable growth rate is very small, the industry stock only increased 6%, and the inventory control is also better.
Investment proposal: considering the changes in macro policy expectations, the engineering machinery plate is expected to meet the restoration of valuation, with the emphasis on Sany, Hengli hydraulic, Liugong, Addie precision, Xugong machinery, Anhui joint force and Zhejiang power and so on.